This is a translated excerpt of the original Spanish article on Radio Mitre.
Jonathan Brill, artificial intelligence expert: “Five AI-driven trends are going to collide in the world”
The futurist argues that five AI-driven trends will require companies and states to rethink their strategies.
Jonathan Brill, author of “AI and the Octopus Organization,” warns that several forces will converge and generate disruptions in the next five years. Brill, with two decades of experience in R&D labs and as an advisor to companies and governments, identifies five key vectors: his analysis integrates technology with macroeconomics and geopolitics.
Five clashing fronts
Brill lists:
- Trade disharmony and geopolitical realignment
- Demographic aging that reduces consumption and labor supply
- Rising global debt and fractured international coordination
- Bloomberg estimates military spending will be 50% higher between 2025 and 2030
- Accelerated advancement of AI models with very high efficiency gains.
The expert downplays the automatic fear of unemployment: AI tends to fragment tasks rather than eliminate entire occupations. He estimates that tasks will be exposed to AI by approximately 15% by 2030 and predicts that many jobs will recover about an hour per day. As he summarizes: “Artificial intelligence isn’t actually eating jobs. But most jobs could recover an hour a day.”
Governance and risks
Brill proposes the “octopus organization”: distributed decision-making with autonomous branches and a central body that acts only in complex cases. He warns about accountability and transparency: without proper governance, these mechanisms can fail. As he himself cautions: “It could be Iran, it could be a natural disaster, or the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, but do you really think the dominoes won’t fall?”
Regarding agentive tools, he distinguishes between demonstrations and useful applications. He says that enterprise versions with real value already exist and shares his experience with Deep Invent: a patent developed by his AI and approved in less than four months. He recommends traceability and technical caution before delegating critical decisions.
To preserve deep thinking, he proposes clear protocols: design measurable experiments, treat them like a portfolio, and require that each test earns the right to scale. He warns about adaptation phases—storming, norming—and suggests tools that compare results with checklists and anti-bias reminders (reasonable pay lists, 100-200 euros/month).
The central thesis calls for viewing AI within its social and economic context: debt, demographics, military spending, trade, and technology. Only in this way can we understand the systemic risk and build resilience. Brill’s invitation is clear: prepare businesses and governments for the consequences of these AI-driven trends.
